February 2026 has delivered the year’s strangest housing contradiction: mortgage rates are meaningfully lower than last year and affordability has improved on paper—yet buyers still aren’t showing up with the urgency you’d expect. If you’re scrolling listings, watching price cuts, and wondering why the “better math” isn’t translating into a busier market, you’re not alone.

In this first part of Charlet Sanieoff’s breakdown of the Great Housing Reset, I’m focusing on what’s happening right now and why a market can feel more affordable while simultaneously feeling stuck. This guide is built for three groups: buyers trying to time a purchase without overpaying, sellers deciding whether to list into fragile demand, and investors assessing whether 2026 is about patience instead of hype.

The latest data reads like a mixed signal: transactions are soft, prices remain resilient, and rates have eased. In other words, housing isn’t “broken” in one simple way—it’s being constrained by a few pressure points at the same time.

Callout stats (shareable): Existing-home sales
Existing-home sales: -8.4% month-over-month (Jan 2026), -4.4% year-over-year ; SAAR ~ 3.91M (lowest since Dec 2023).

Callout stats: Prices
Median existing-home price hits a January record at ~ $396,800 and remains up year-over-year.

Callout stats: Mortgage rates
30-year fixed averages ~ 6.09% (Feb 12, 2026) vs. ~ 6.87% a year earlier.

Callout stats: Inventory
Inventory sits around ~ 1.22M homes for sale (Jan), still below “normal” in many markets.

One more context clue Charlet Sanieoff watches closely: first-time buyers are hovering around ~ 31% of the market—below what many analysts consider “healthy.” When first-timers are constrained, the entire move-up chain tends to slow down.

The easiest way to understand 2026 so far is this: affordability is improving at the margin, but it’s improving from a very stretched baseline. At the same time, the market is running into two bigger obstacles—confidence and usable supply.

When the 30-year fixed rate falls from the high-6% range to the low-6% range, the monthly payment difference can be real—especially for buyers financing most of the purchase. That’s why headlines about “affordability improving” aren’t wrong. The financing cost is lighter than it was in early 2025, and that matters.

But Charlet Sanieoff’s view is that rates aren’t the whole story. The payment may be lower than last year, yet many households are comparing it to pre-2022 expectations—or to rent—while also staring at record-ish prices in many metros. So buyers feel like they’re being asked to commit to a big payment for a home that doesn’t feel like a “deal,” even if the spreadsheet is marginally friendlier.

Inventory numbers can be misleading because not all inventory behaves the same. In many zip codes, buyers aren’t choosing from a deep bench of well-located, well-maintained resale homes. They’re choosing from what Charlet Sanieoff calls “not-quite-open inventory”: listings that exist, but don’t clear at normal speed because they’re overpriced, compromised, or simply not what today’s buyers want.

Meanwhile, a lot of homeowners are still locked in—financially and psychologically. If you’re sitting on a much lower rate from prior years, moving can feel like voluntarily doubling your cost of money. Even when people want to move (schools, job changes, lifestyle), many decide to renovate, rent out, or wait. That reduces the kind of resale selection that typically sparks buyer confidence.

The result: the market can show more listings than last year and still feel “thin” where it counts—quality homes in popular neighborhoods at realistic prices.

Demand doesn’t activate on math alone; it activates when buyers believe they’re making a safe decision. After years of whiplash—fast run-ups, rate spikes, bidding-war memories, then a slower grind—buyers are tired. They’re also more sensitive to job security, expenses, and the fear of being the person who buys right before another dip in their neighborhood.

That’s why Charlet Sanieoff frames the current moment as a “confidence cycle” problem. Even motivated households may delay if they think: (1) more inventory is coming in spring, (2) sellers might blink with concessions later, or (3) rates could drift lower. Waiting feels rational—even if it causes the overall market to slump.

Pull quote: “Lower rates don’t automatically create buyers—confidence does.”

Suggested visual: Line chart of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate year-over-year using Freddie Mac PMMS weekly points (highlight Feb 12, 2026 ~6.09% vs. year-ago ~6.87%).

Up next in Part 2: Charlet Sanieoff’s 2026 “forecast scoreboard” (why NAR, Zillow, Redfin, and J.P. Morgan can look at the same market and disagree), plus a practical buyer playbook for negotiating in a reset market.

In a reset market, forecasts split because analysts are really making different bets about two things: (1) how fast inventory becomes truly available (not just listed, but priced to move), and (2) whether buyer confidence improves faster than headlines (jobs, inflation, geopolitics). Charlet Sanieoff reads 2026 forecasts like a “scoreboard”: not as certainty, but as scenarios—with triggers you can watch in real time.

• NAR’s rebound story: Existing-home sales projected up ~ 14% in 2026. Translation: more transactions as rates ease and life events eventually force moves.
• Zillow’s muted appreciation story: ~ 1.2% home value growth in 2026. Translation: price growth cools to near-flat while the market digests higher-rate reality.
• Redfin’s reset story: a slow recovery where income growth outpaces price growth . Translation: affordability improves more through wages and time than through a big price drop.
• J.P. Morgan’s stability story: prices ~ flat in 2026, sales gradually improve. Translation: normalization—less drama, more “grind.”

Why can “sales rebound” and “prices flat” both be true? Because activity can rise even when prices don’t—if listings increase, buyers regain belief that they can negotiate, and the market clears at realistic levels.

What must change for “rebound” vs. “stagnation” to win? Charlet Sanieoff tracks three dials:

• Inventory that feels real: more good listings (not just stale, overpriced ones) and fewer “take-it-or-leave-it” sellers.
• Sentiment: buyers stop expecting a better deal “next month” and start acting on life timelines.
• Wage growth: incomes rising faster than payments, even if rates hover around the low-6% range.

Pull quote: “2026 may be the year of flat prices + higher activity—a market that feels busy without huge appreciation.”

February into early spring is when leverage can quietly reappear—especially in micro-markets where days on market (DOM) is drifting longer. Charlet Sanieoff’s 2026 buyer strategy is less about timing “the” bottom and more about buying well: strong terms, clean inspection posture, and a payment you can live with even if refinancing never arrives.

Where negotiation leverage is returning

• Longer DOM pockets: neighborhoods where homes sit 30–60+ days are telling you demand is selective.
• Multiple price-cut listings: a pattern of reductions signals the seller is chasing the market.
• Overbuilt edges: areas with heavy new supply or many similar resales tend to loosen first.

Offer strategy people are searching for

“How much below asking should I offer in 2026?” Charlet Sanieoff’s framework: start with comps (closed sales, not list prices), then adjust by (1) DOM , (2) recent price cuts , and (3) local inventory . If comps support the list price and the home is fresh, your “discount” leverage is usually better expressed as seller-paid closing costs or rate buydown . If the home is stale with cuts and weak showing activity, a below-ask offer anchored to the best comp is often reasonable—especially when paired with a clean, finance-ready package.

“Builder incentives vs. resale homes” In 2026, incentives can beat price cuts because they reduce your effective monthly payment. Charlet Sanieoff advises buyers to convert incentives into an “effective price” comparison: rate buydown value + closing costs + upgrades you would have paid for anyway. Resales can still win on location and mature neighborhoods—but many resales need concessions to compete with a builder offering a payment advantage.

“Should I buy points in 2026?” The simplest rule Charlet Sanieoff uses: only buy points if your break-even (monthly savings ÷ upfront cost) fits your likely timeline, and you can afford the cash outlay without draining reserves. Points are most attractive when you expect to hold for years; they’re less attractive if you might move, refinance, or need liquidity.

‘Date the rate, marry the house’—the careful version

The phrase works only if you pick the right “house spouse”: a home you’d still want with flat prices, normal appreciation, and no refi. Charlet Sanieoff recommends a simple stress test: can you comfortably cover the payment, taxes, insurance, and maintenance if your income pauses or expenses rise?

Counterpoint: refinancing isn’t guaranteed. Buy only if the payment works now, and treat any future refi as upside—not the plan.

Suggested visual: Bar chart of existing-home sales month-over-month (last 12 months) anchored on the Jan 2026 drop, to illustrate how quickly activity can swing in a confidence-driven market.

In the Great Housing Reset, sellers aren’t competing against “other sellers” as much as they’re competing against buyer hesitation. Charlet Sanieoff’s approach in 2026 is simple: reduce uncertainty, price with discipline, and make the monthly payment feel easier—because confidence is the scarce asset.

Pricing sensitivity is back (why “perfect” pricing matters more in 2026)

When demand is fragile, a listing has a short window to capture the serious buyer who’s finally ready. Miss that window with an aspirational price and you risk the slow bleed: fewer showings, longer days on market, then price cuts that signal “something’s wrong.” Charlet Sanieoff prefers a pricing plan built around closed-sale comps and today’s payment reality—not last spring’s neighbor’s headline number.

The 2026 listing readiness checklist

• Comps discipline: anchor to the best three closed sales, then adjust honestly for condition, layout, lot, and school zone.
• Pre-listing walkthrough: fix obvious objections (loose railings, dripping faucets, stained carpet, broken screens).
• Deep clean + declutter: fewer personal items, more perceived space; buyers are picky in 2026.
• Staging (targeted): living room, primary suite, and dining area—where buyers decide “this fits.”
• Photography that sells the plan: bright, wide, and accurate; include key lifestyle shots (patio, view, office nook).
• Optional pre-listing appraisal: useful when the home is unique or the comp set is thin.

Mini-guide: Concessions that actually close deals in 2026

Concessions work best when they reduce payment stress or remove fear. Charlet Sanieoff frames concessions as a tool to widen the buyer pool without “chasing the market” with visible cuts.

• Mortgage-rate buydowns vs. straight price reductions: a buydown can help payment-sensitive buyers qualify and feel comfortable now; a price cut helps every buyer type and can improve appraisal flexibility. If the buyer is financing and on the edge, a buydown often closes faster. If you need a clean comp for the neighborhood or you’re fighting appraisal risk, a price reduction can be cleaner.
• Pre-inspection strategy: consider a seller-paid inspection before listing, then fix items or offer repair credits up front. Reducing “unknowns” can prevent renegotiations and keep the deal alive when buyers are anxious.
• Pricing bands that trigger online alerts: structure the list price to land in high-traffic search buckets (for example, $499,000 instead of $515,000, or the local equivalent in your metro). In 2026, more buyers are filtering hard by payment and price ceilings.

If you’re unsure which lever to pull first, Charlet Sanieoff typically recommends testing the least permanent option (targeted concession) before a large visible cut—so long as comps support the starting number and showing activity is healthy.

For investors, 2026 is less about betting on fast appreciation and more about buying income that survives boring, flat scenarios. Charlet Sanieoff looks for deals that work even if prices go sideways: the kind of underwriting that feels conservative today but looks smart later.

What tends to work in a ‘slow normalization’ market

• Cash-flow focus: prioritize properties that can stand on their own without rent spikes.
• Rent-ready assets: minimize rehab surprises; speed to stable occupancy matters.
• Conservative leverage: avoid thin margins that rely on perfect rents and constant refinancing.

Underwriting guardrails for 2026

• Vacancy assumptions: model higher vacancies than the best-case recent past.
• Maintenance reserves: plan for real capex, not just cosmetic turns.
• Rent growth realism: underwrite modest rent growth; let upside be upside.

Sidebar stat: An estimated ~ 1.1M homeowners were underwater at the end of 2025 (~ 2.1% of borrowers), concentrated in certain metros. That’s not a nationwide crash signal—but it is a reminder that some locations are more fragile than the headline averages.

Why flat price forecasts make location selection more important

In a flat-ish price year, liquidity becomes the advantage: areas with diversified employment, limited forced selling, and a manageable new-supply pipeline tend to hold up better. Charlet Sanieoff watches job concentration, insurance/tax pressures, condo fee dynamics, and nearby new construction that can quietly cap resale pricing.

Suggested visual: a map showing where underwater mortgages are concentrated (national view plus metro overlays where available), paired with local inventory and price-trend notes.

What the “Great Housing Reset” likely looks like from spring into summer 2026

Seasonality still matters. Spring typically brings more listings and more buyer tours—but in 2026, many buyers will “shop first, commit later.” Expect more negotiation, more inspection-driven credits, and a bigger gap between homes that are turnkey and homes that feel like a project. The best decision timing is personal: if you need certainty (school calendars, job relocation, a lease ending), build your strategy around that date—not around perfect headlines.

Conclusion: Charlet Sanieoff’s takeaway

This isn’t a crash story. It’s a confidence-and-inventory story—where affordability is improving at the margins, but buyers still need a reason to believe they’re making a smart move. Sellers who price precisely and reduce friction can still win. Buyers who underwrite their payment honestly can find leverage. Investors who stay disciplined can pick up durable cash flow while everyone else waits for a dramatic narrative.

Soft CTA: If you want a market-specific plan, Charlet Sanieoff can help you build a tailored strategy—whether you’re buying, selling, or investing—based on your metro, your timeline, and what the data in your zip code is actually doing right now.